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Usually, the National Football League's Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a straightforward formula. It often serves as a form of mea culpa. We regret we underestimated your team in our pre-campaign projections.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut path: the coach who orchestrated the largest resurgence receives the prize. However, it sparks an annual debate about expectations and whether we're genuinely rewarding superior leadership or simply the greatest surprise.

Yet the latest race is fundamentally different. The group of candidates is unusually deep. It has been the year of resurgences. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning division winners falling away and recent underperformers rising collectively. Under an typical season, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the overwhelming favorite. Yet in this turbulent and thrilling year, he's facing five other elite coaches.

Here is how the hypothetical vote ought to look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by QBs. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. If you solve a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only corrected his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. In the right environment, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to showcase his rare ability. Since Week 9, the Bears rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's consistent performance. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become more confident, far less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the scheme instead of freelancing. It is an attack built entirely in Johnson's vision: a physical run game, a heavy helping of play-action and a creative aerial game that frees wide-open receivers all over the field. Williams has taken advantage. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been able to create magic out of broken plays.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive blueprint. Virtually every gamble – rebuilding the trenches, featuring the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a rhythm thrower – has worked. This is rare for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who entered the organization with the immense hype Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the top name on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a offensive dork but the type of leader that can inject new life into an franchise.

In a typical season, Johnson would be the runaway favorite. But this is not a normal season!

The area where Johnson's candidacy runs slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears presently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously unreliable. Coaches can focus on ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is sustainable. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two victories behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is in place for sustained winning. However he comes up short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable spot to Johnson. He's another first-time head coach who has orchestrated a swift resurgence. During the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest overall football of his career. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defense that now ranks fifth in the league in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, he has excelled at the leadership aspects, which was not a certainty after his initial public introduction and some of his preseason moves.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed themselves with the perfect staff mix of youth and veteran savvy, Coen trusted first-timers. From the head coach on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That type of approach is intriguing in theory, but frequently collapses in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a new job in real-time. Yet Coen has pulled everyone and all elements together.

After an early hot beginning, there was a chance that the season would veer off the rails. A midseason collapse caused the team wobbling once more. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. He did not. Rather, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive answers and started seeking reliable ones. Coen refocused the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and asked his QB to use his legs more.

The outcomes are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. Coen gets the tiniest deduction in the standings because he inherited a talented team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year narrative has a hinge moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a new signal-caller and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator might have ended the campaign in October. Rather, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the season, the new QB was an MVP front-runner. He has cooled off after that time, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, placing him only a single place ahead of other QBs.

Still