A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that divided the country and triggered turmoil, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely split population where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in universities but hardly any government figures or advocates want to engage with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each writes two articles that strive for impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and social statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over identity markers, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," stated the writer. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the notion that there might be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unification but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately lose but all factions has got something to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
